Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
