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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will hold a pivotal quadruple election, including the presidency, national assembly, and local offices.

A Competitive Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are competing for the presidency, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to run by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a constant threat. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as exiles in bordering states.

"This is an chance to commend the significant progress of the nation," said a UN regional official, though he added that obstacles remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to secure another term. He first entered politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a civil war.

After a chaotic three-year interim, his perceived impartiality from the main militias powered his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

Concerns persist that supply-chain issues and insecurity could mar the electoral process, particularly in rural areas. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is offering security and logistical support that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Further issues involve the voter list being published only online, a significant barrier in a nation with limited internet access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the population."

Implications of Extended Rule

Many residents fear that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has put faith in the Russian mercenary group Wagner for personal security, and despite its founder's death, has resisted calls to fold its fighters into a new structure. Meanwhile, Rwanda has taken a separate strategy, focusing on commercial interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have claimed the administration evicted its own soldiers from a internationally financed training centre to accommodate a Rwandan agricultural project. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "intent on dispose of the country piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering a glimmer of calm, the election proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and external competition.