‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.
The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's homes.
As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of cooking gas are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, media reports say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Some panic booking and accumulation has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports 90% of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative states exploitative practices.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.
