This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.