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Amid the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.